Saturday, January 21, 2012

Financial article I wrote.

Rabobank: house price falls in 2012

The affordability of Dutch houses will this year. This has a negative effect on house prices. That letter from Rabobank economists published today in the Housing Market Quarterly. Reasons for this are that less can be borrowed under the NHG, the possible tightening of repayment terms and the expected rise in mortgage rates. The prices of homes in 2011 are expected to fall by 2 percent whatsoever. The number of transactions remains probably constant (130,000). This is partly because the need for sales, homes for sale in length, will increase.

The Dutch housing market shows clear regional imbalances. Thus restoring the prices in the north of Holland, while the decrease in throughput for example southwestern Ontario. The former region is characterized by a relatively tight housing market, while the north and south of our country, some regions have very wide. The task in this (shrinking) regions, to avoid surpluses and the existing stock more attractive and to keep. In both cases, this means a major challenge. It should gez egd that it is a common task involving coordination and prioritization of the utmost importance, said the Rabobank economists.

Housing price development 1995-2012

The number of transactions remains historically low. In the fourth quarter of 2010 more than 7 percent fewer homes sold compared to one year ago. Approximately 126,000 homes changed owners a year, bringing the number of transactions at the bottom of a fluctuating bandwidth that is more than one year (between 126,000 and 130,000). Not only does the low number of transactions, homes are also longer for sale.

One of the few bright spots in the Dutch housing market is that the number of forced sales in December was lower even than during the same month last year. And this, while foreclosures internationally already very low with 0.05 percent of the housing stock. This means that households are still well able to meet their payment obligations. The almost one year long declining unemployment is partly responsible for.

Another positive is that the number of houses for sale in January 3000 fell compared to October of 2010. But it is too early to speak of a revival. In previous years, in January after all declined. This and do not interfere with the mortgage may indicate a good first quarter. But for the rest of the year are new policies and other market factors, a further recovery in the road, according to Rabobank.

Although the number of homes for sale has declined somewhat, it is still high. Compensation comes in the form of a sharp decrease in the number of completed homes. This expands the range stops. The coming year will be the new production is not expected to recover quickly, given the low number of permits. With serious consequences for the construction industry, who are already struggling.

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